As China enters its annual Golden Week holiday, freight markets are heading into October with several important factors affecting ocean shipping, ports, rail and domestic transportation.
While some freight volumes are beginning to soften seasonally, ongoing capacity management and transportation bottlenecks mean shippers should not necessarily expect rates or transit times to improve immediately.
China Golden Week Begins
China’s Golden Week runs from October 1 through October 7, with factories, offices and many businesses throughout the country closing or operating at reduced capacity.
Transpacific shipping demand typically weakens following Golden Week as the pre-holiday cargo surge subsides. However, ocean carriers are expected to continue managing capacity through blank sailings and schedule adjustments.
As a result, ocean freight rates may not decline as quickly as demand.
Shippers with China-origin cargo should continue to monitor vessel schedules closely as carriers adjust capacity during and immediately following the holiday.
Los Angeles/Long Beach: Rail Dwell Remains a Concern
Rail continues to be one of the primary operational challenges at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach.
August rail-bound container dwell averaged approximately 6.75 days, compared with only 2.95 days for truck-bound containers.
More recent operational reporting indicates average rail dwell of approximately:
- Los Angeles: 8 days
- Long Beach: 9 days
The national rail network continues to handle strong freight volumes, but Southern California remains a notable localized bottleneck.
For cargo moving inland by rail through LA/LB, shippers should build additional transit time into their supply-chain planning.
New York/New Jersey: Drayage Capacity Remains Tight
Peak-season drayage conditions remain tight in the New York/New Jersey market.
Shippers should consider:
- Booking drayage appointments in advance
- Confirming chassis availability
- Coordinating container pickup as early as possible
- Returning empty equipment promptly to avoid additional charges and delays
Major carriers continue to identify New York/New Jersey and Southern California as among the tighter U.S. drayage markets.
U.S. Rail and Intermodal Demand Remains Strong
U.S. intermodal traffic continues to show healthy demand.
For the week ending September 26, U.S. intermodal volume reached 301,610 containers and trailers, representing a 6.3% increase from the same period last year.
Overall U.S. rail traffic increased 4.8% year over year.
The national network is absorbing the additional volume reasonably well, although localized congestion—particularly around Los Angeles and Long Beach—continues to create potential delays.
Trucking Capacity Tightens Despite Softer Freight Volumes
Domestic freight volumes have softened, but that has not necessarily translated into lower trucking costs.
Available truckload capacity has been tightening, creating continued upward pressure on rates. LTL pricing remains particularly firm.
Fuel-market pressures are adding another variable. Taken together, tighter capacity and elevated operating costs suggest meaningful trucking cost relief may not arrive quickly.
Shippers may benefit from securing capacity early rather than relying on last-minute spot-market availability.
Customs & Tariff Update
No significant new overnight operational directive from U.S. Customs and Border Protection has surfaced.
The United States and China have agreed to tariff reductions covering approximately $60 billion in bilateral goods. However, these reductions are product-specific and should not be interpreted as a general elimination of tariffs on Chinese imports.
Importers should continue reviewing the applicable HTS classifications and tariff treatment for individual products before calculating landed costs.
What This Means for Shippers
Heading into October, the freight market presents a mixed picture.
Post-Golden Week demand may provide some relief on transpacific routes, but carrier capacity management could limit downward pressure on ocean rates. At the same time, rail congestion at LA/LB, tight drayage conditions in major gateways and constrained domestic trucking capacity remain important considerations.
For importers and exporters, the best strategy remains proactive planning: book transportation early, allow additional time for inland movements, monitor carrier schedules and confirm equipment availability before cargo arrives.
Kepler Freight continues to monitor global ocean freight, U.S. ports, rail, trucking and customs developments to help our customers navigate changing market conditions.
Need help planning an upcoming shipment?
Contact Kepler Freight Inc. for assistance with international ocean and air freight, customs coordination and domestic transportation.
